Heatwaves and short-term rentals were at the center of a persistent discussion this year: would travelers abandon the Mediterranean for cooler countries? In recent years, this scenario has sounded increasingly likely. The short-term rental data, however, do not show a mass exodus from Southern Europe.
The analysis by PriceLabs examines data from France, Italy, Spain and four Scandinavian countries. In July, occupancy increased by 2.9 percentage points in Sweden, 2.5 in Denmark and 2 in Norway. It also increased in Spain by 1.7 points and in Italy by 1.2. The strengthening of some northern markets, therefore, was not accompanied by a corresponding decline in the southern markets examined.
For a professional in Greece, this is more valuable than an easy prediction of a “shift to the North.” Greece is not included in the specific sample, so the percentages do not describe the Greek market. They do, however, show that a period of extreme heat is not enough to conclude that demand is automatically leaving Mediterranean destinations.
Visitors may be shifting their holidays in time
The most interesting change in the analysis concerns September. In the data collected by PriceLabs at the beginning of the month, already booked nights for September were higher than at the same point in 2025: by 28.1% in Italy, 16.6% in Spain and 13% in France.
This is a booking pace at a specific point in time, not the final result for the month. Nor does it prove that the heat led visitors to travel later. Peak-season prices can also push travelers with greater flexibility toward dates with lower costs. The available data do not allow us to determine how much each factor contributed.
This raises an important question for the Greek short-term rental market as well: if demand increases in September, does this involve visitors who avoided the August heat, travelers looking for better prices, or a broader extension of the season? The answer requires booking data by destination, date and price. It cannot be derived simply by comparing overall occupancy in two months.
Air conditioning matters more where it is not a given
Heat also appears to affect accommodation choices within the same destination. In Toulouse, where according to PriceLabs data 37% of listings report having air conditioning, occupancy for properties that offer it increased by three percentage points year over year in July. Among properties without air conditioning, it decreased by three points. In August, the first group maintained its occupancy, while the second lost five points.
In Seville, by contrast, where 96% of listings report having air conditioning, the analysis does not identify a similar difference. This feature may have a strong influence on guest choice when it is relatively uncommon; when almost everyone offers it, it becomes part of the basic offering. The data show a difference in occupancy, not that air conditioning by itself guarantees a higher rate or profit.
When market growth does not reach every property
There is also a second pitfall in reading the numbers: more nights booked in a country do not necessarily mean more nights booked for every owner.
In Denmark, for example, occupancy in July rose from 73.8% to 76.3%, but booked nights per property fell by 2.4%. In Oslo, total booked nights increased by 33%, while the number of properties increased by 24%. When supply grows, an impressive figure for the market as a whole can coexist with a much more modest picture in an individual host’s calendar.
This is perhaps the most useful way to read this year’s European data. Heat is a factor worth monitoring in the market, but it does not explain bookings on its own. Prices, available inventory and the timing of holidays can significantly change the picture. For a property manager, what matters is not whether a destination is generally “growing,” but what is happening to nights booked and revenue per available property — particularly in the weeks connecting the summer peak with autumn.
