Despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty triggered by the crisis in the Middle East, Greek tourism in 2026 continues to show positive growth prospects. This is the central conclusion of a new study by the National Bank of Greece, which highlights that demand for the country remains strong. However, it also stresses that reliance on air transport remains the most vulnerable structural weakness of the Greek tourism model.
The report estimates that hotel sales will increase by around 3% in 2026, compared with 4.5% growth in 2025. At the same time, it warns that a prolonged energy or geopolitical crisis could significantly affect demand in the coming years.
This assessment is particularly important, as the survey was conducted during the peak of the crisis, in April and May, when global markets were under intense pressure due to developments in the Persian Gulf.
Nevertheless, despite the challenging environment, tourism businesses maintained a positive outlook, while more recent indicators show further improvement in sentiment following the easing of geopolitical tensions.
Greek tourism 2026: Positive outlook despite global volatility
According to the National Bank analysis, Greece continues to outperform the European average in tourism expectations.
International institutions estimate that European tourism will grow by 3%–4% in 2026. In Greece, the outlook is supported by airline capacity trends. Scheduled flights to Greek airports between May and August show an increase of 3.6%, compared with around 1.6% across Europe.
This confirms that Greece remains one of the most attractive Mediterranean destinations, despite the unstable global environment.
Notably, even at the peak of geopolitical uncertainty, hotel businesses did not significantly revise their forecasts, reinforcing the sector’s resilience in terms of demand.
Hoteliers feel the pressure more than other sectors
Although the overall picture remains positive, the survey shows that the hotel sector has been more exposed to external shocks than other parts of the economy.
Specifically:
- 80% of hotel businesses reported pressure from rising energy costs
- 44% reported impacts on both demand and investment planning
- In the broader SME sector, the corresponding figures were around 70% and 30%
The main driver was the sharp increase in global oil prices, which reached $120 per barrel in April—around 70% higher than February levels.
This led to a doubling in aviation fuel prices, increasing airline operating costs and pushing up airfares.
At the same time, higher energy costs fueled inflation in key European markets, reducing household disposable income and increasing risks for tourism consumption.
Why Greece remained more resilient
The study attributes the resilience of Greek tourism to three structural characteristics.
First is the high dependence on European source markets. Around 90% of inbound overnight stays come from Europe, compared with roughly 80% in the broader Mediterranean region.
Second is the strong position of the “sun and sea” tourism product. According to data from the European Travel Commission (ETC), Europeans continue to prioritize summer holidays within Europe, while Mediterranean destinations are gaining popularity.
At the same time, rising geopolitical concerns are shifting demand toward safer destinations within the EU—an advantage for Greece.
Airline connectivity: The key vulnerability
The most critical finding concerns air transport.
The report identifies airline connectivity as the most vulnerable link in the Greek tourism system.
Greece relies heavily on air travel due to its geographic position and limited domestic tourism base. Only 16% of overnight stays come from domestic tourists, compared with around 37% in the Mediterranean average.
During the recent crisis, this risk did not fully materialize. Concerns over fuel shortages were not confirmed, and airlines managed to absorb part of the cost pressure through hedging strategies.
However, the study warns that a longer-lasting disruption could have far more significant consequences.
Scenarios for 2027
The National Bank analysis examines two scenarios for the next tourism period.
In a mild scenario, where oil prices remain close to $80 per barrel through the first half of 2027, tourism demand could decline by up to 2 percentage points.
In a more adverse scenario, with oil prices averaging around $100 per barrel, the pressure on demand could reach up to 5.5 percentage points.
These estimates reflect only the direct impact of higher airfares and do not include additional pressures from inflation or reduced disposable income in source markets.
The need to strengthen the tourism model
The report concludes that protecting airline connectivity must become a central pillar of national tourism strategy.
It calls for a structured crisis management framework, including predefined activation mechanisms, closer coordination with airlines and tourism stakeholders, flexible airport pricing policies, and temporary targeted interventions when necessary.
At the same time, Greece is already undergoing a broader transformation of its tourism model through infrastructure investments, spatial planning reforms, diversification of destinations, and expansion into long-haul markets.
Nearly half of hotel businesses view positively the contribution of the resilience fee to local infrastructure upgrades, while around 40% are actively adapting their offerings to attract visitors from distant markets.
The report’s key message is clear: Greek tourism in 2026 is resilient, but its long-term competitiveness will depend heavily on the stability and reliability of air connectivity. In an environment where geopolitical and energy shocks are becoming more frequent, airline access is no longer just an advantage—it is a critical pillar of national tourism resilience.
