The renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—particularly the conflict in Iran—have brought a familiar concern for the tourism sector back into focus. In a market that has been repeatedly tested in recent years, from the pandemic to energy and geopolitical crises, the key question resurfaces with urgency: to what extent are bookings, and especially the short-term rental segment, actually being affected?
The data suggests that reality diverges from scenarios of a broad downturn. Rather than a horizontal decline, the market appears resilient, while simultaneously undergoing an internal reshaping with clear variations across regions.
Data analysis and sample size
The picture is based on Hosthub data for March 2025 and March 2026, using a statistically significant sample for each region, as highlighted by the study itself. It provides a real-world snapshot of the resilience of Greek tourism amid yet another major international crisis over the past seven years.
The company, which supports property owners and managers in distributing short-term rentals across multiple platforms such as Airbnb, Booking.com, Vrbo, and Expedia, analyzed booking pace—defined as the average number of new bookings per listing—for Greece and Cyprus, as well as for ten Greek regions, comparing March 2026 with the same month last year.
Two countries, two different trajectories
The comparison between Greece and Cyprus reveals a striking divergence. In Greece, booking pace remains essentially stable, standing at 6.01 versus 5.99 in March 2025, marking a marginal increase of 0.3%. In a period of heightened uncertainty, this stability is a strong indicator of traveler confidence.
In Cyprus, by contrast, a clear deterioration is recorded. Booking pace drops from 6.62 to 4.81, a decline of 27.3%. This difference is largely linked to perceptions of safety and geographic proximity to the crisis zone, which appear to influence traveler choices.
Time-based analysis shows that the impact of the crisis was immediate rather than gradual. In Cyprus, the decline appears as early as the first ten days of the month and remains pronounced throughout, with the second ten-day period recording the steepest losses.
In Greece, fluctuations are limited. Minor variations are observed across the three ten-day periods, but the overall picture remains unchanged. The market appears to be absorbing shocks while maintaining its momentum.
Demand redistribution within Greece
Although the overall picture is stable, significant regional variations are evident. Demand is shifting toward purely leisure destinations, while urban markets are under pressure.
The Cyclades record an increase of 29.1% and the Ionian Islands 25.5%, while strong momentum is also seen in other parts of Greece (+16.2%) and in Thessaloniki (+14%). These destinations appear to be absorbing a significant share of demand, confirming that travelers are continuing to plan their main holidays.
By contrast, Athens records a decline of 11.3%, emerging as the main area of weakness. The sharpest drop occurs during the second ten-day period, when bookings fall by 20.7%, highlighting the sensitivity of city breaks during periods of uncertainty.
Crete shows a slight decline of −3.4%, while the Peloponnese records a modest increase of 6.7%. At the same time, regions such as Halkidiki, the Dodecanese, and the Sporades show small but positive changes, without significant volatility.
The role of safety perception
One of the key conclusions of the analysis is that travel decisions are shaped not only by actual events but also by perceived safety. Greece appears to maintain its image as a safe destination, which helps sustain demand.
Cyprus, on the other hand, is more affected by its proximity to the crisis zone, a factor that is directly reflected in booking data.
The Middle East crisis has not triggered a generalized decline in Airbnb bookings in Greece. On the contrary, the market demonstrates notable resilience, keeping demand levels almost unchanged compared to the previous year.
However, the picture is not uniform. Demand is being redistributed, with leisure destinations strengthening and urban markets facing pressure. At the same time, the sharp drop in Cyprus serves as a reminder of how decisive the factor of perceived safety can be.
In an environment where uncertainty persists, the key takeaway is clear: the Greek market has not been materially impacted, but careful data interpretation and strategic flexibility remain essential for industry professionals.
