The slowdown in the rate of new short-term rental listings entering the U.S. market is creating more favorable conditions for existing managers, who are maintaining high occupancy levels and gaining greater flexibility in increasing their prices. This emerges from the new 2026 Midyear Outlook report by AirDNA.
According to the company’s projections, the average occupancy of short-term rentals in the U.S. will settle at 57.4% in 2026, remaining above the pre-pandemic average of 57%. At the same time, both demand and available supply are expected to increase by 2.7% year-over-year.
Revenue per available rental (RevPAR) is estimated to increase by 2.9%, primarily thanks to the rise in the average daily rate (ADR). The increase in price per night accelerated from 0.7% in January to approximately 3% in the spring.
AirDNA points out that expectations for lower borrowing costs, which would boost new investments in the market, were not met. The resurgence of inflation and the rise in energy prices pushed mortgage rates back above 6%, limiting the entry of new listings into the market.
AirDNA’s Director of Economic Analysis and Forecasting, Bram Gallagher, noted that the slowing supply, combined with steady travel demand, has kept occupancy at high levels and strengthened pricing conditions for established managers. At the same time, he estimated that as inflation cools, demand and investments will be further bolstered in 2027.
Changes in travel habits
The report also records changes in the travel habits of visitors. Bookings are now made closer to the arrival date, vacations are becoming shorter in duration, while there is an increasing preference for larger accommodations that can host families or groups.
Regarding international markets, demand from Canada and Western Europe fell compared to last year, while arrivals from Latin America, led by Brazil and Argentina, continued to increase. AirDNA further points out that the 2026 FIFA World Cup is boosting demand and prices in several of the cities that will host the matches.
At the destination level, San Francisco recorded the largest increase in RevPAR in the first half of the year (12.1%), followed by Anaheim (11%) and Philadelphia (10.1%). Meanwhile, the fastest growth in supply is expected in more affordable rural areas, small towns, and mid-sized markets.
AirDNA CEO Rohit Bezewada emphasized that national averages do not fully capture the market picture, highlighting that the managers and investors who will stand out this year are those who base their decisions on analytical data per local market.
