For years, Airbnb has been at the center of the public debate over Greece’s housing crisis. The sharp rise in rents, the continuous increase in house prices, and the growing difficulty thousands of households face in finding affordable housing have largely been attributed to the expansion of short-term rentals, which have been accused of absorbing a significant share of the available housing stock from the long-term rental market.
However, according to a new study by the Parliamentary Budget Office of the Hellenic Parliament, the picture is far more complex. The analysis argues that short-term rentals are not the primary driver of the housing crisis, as their overall impact on rents is estimated at just 1.8%. Instead, the study shifts attention to a much larger issue: the millions of homes that remain vacant and outside the market.
The key finding is that Greece is not primarily facing a housing shortage, but rather a problem of underutilizing its existing housing stock. As the report notes, the country has one of the largest housing stocks in Europe, yet a substantial portion is neither available for rent nor for sale, limiting the effective supply and putting upward pressure on prices.
What the data show about Airbnb
One of the study’s most interesting conclusions concerns the role of short-term rentals themselves. Despite the extensive debate surrounding Airbnb in recent years, the researchers estimate that its impact on the overall housing market is considerably smaller than is commonly portrayed.
According to the data presented, properties used exclusively for short-term rentals account for just 0.4% of the country’s total housing stock and 1.1% of all vacant homes. At the same time, the research cited by the Parliamentary Budget Office estimates that the overall impact of short-term rentals on rents does not exceed 1.8%.
The study further states that no strong correlation is found between rising rents and the increase in short-term rental listings once other factors affecting the housing market are taken into account. It also notes that many owners use their properties only occasionally or as second homes, meaning they would not necessarily have offered them to the long-term rental market even if short-term letting had not been an option.
This, of course, does not mean that short-term rentals have no impact on the market. The study acknowledges that in areas with high tourism demand, such as central Athens, Thessaloniki, and popular tourist destinations, the growth of Airbnb can reduce the available housing supply and contribute to upward pressure on rents. However, these effects are considered largely local rather than significant enough to explain the housing crisis observed at the national level.
The paradox of the Greek housing market
Instead, the study’s main finding concerns the enormous stock of housing that remains unused.
According to data from the 2021 Population and Housing Census, Greece has approximately 6.6 million dwellings. Of these, more than 2.2 million are vacant, representing 34.5% of the country’s total housing stock.
This figure becomes particularly significant considering that, during the same period, house prices increased at an exceptionally rapid pace. Between 2018 and 2025, residential property prices in Athens rose by 95.7%, while in Thessaloniki they increased by 94%.
According to the study, the coexistence of such a large number of vacant homes alongside such a sharp increase in prices represents one of the greatest paradoxes of the Greek housing market. The researchers argue that the problem is not the absence of housing but the fact that a large share of it is simply unavailable to people looking for a place to live.
More homes, yet fewer available on the market
The analysis of census data leads to another important conclusion. Between 2011 and 2021, Greece’s total housing stock increased by 3.5%. In other words, the country added more homes.
During the same period, however, the number of homes available for long-term rental declined by 10.4%, while properties available for sale fell by 33.1%.
Meanwhile, inactive vacant homes increased by 6.1%, from 1.71 million to 1.81 million properties.
In other words, Greece gained more homes, but fewer of them were actually available on the market. According to the study, this development largely explains why prices continued to rise despite the country’s extensive housing stock.
Why so many properties remain vacant
Why so many properties remain vacantThe researchers attribute this phenomenon to a combination of factors that have accumulated over decades.
Many properties remain tied up in inheritance disputes and unresolved ownership issues. Others are linked to legal proceedings or unclear property rights, making their utilization difficult.
The high cost of renovation also plays a significant role. A large share of Greece’s housing stock is old and requires substantial investment to become functional and energy efficient. For many owners, these costs act as a strong disincentive.
At the same time, many homes are located in areas with limited demand, reducing the financial incentive to bring them back onto the market.
The role of construction and foreign investment
The study also examines the contribution of construction activity to the current state of the housing market.
During Greece’s financial crisis, the construction sector experienced a dramatic contraction. Gross value added in construction fell from nearly €18 billion in 2007 to less than €5 billion during the crisis years, while residential investment declined to just 3.1% of GDP, compared with more than 10% before the crisis.
At the same time, since 2019, foreign investment in the real estate market has increased significantly, with annual foreign direct investment exceeding €800 million. However, the study points out that a large share of these funds has been directed toward holiday homes or investment properties linked to the Golden Visa programme, which do not necessarily increase the availability of housing for Greek households.
How much do vacant homes push prices higher?
To estimate the impact of underutilized housing stock, the Parliamentary Budget Office used a specialized macroeconomic model tailored to Greek conditions.
The results indicate that the limited utilization of housing may account for up to 19.1% of the increase in real house prices. Under an even stricter scenario, the effect could reach as much as 26.7%.
The researchers clarify that housing prices are also influenced by higher construction costs, land values, financing conditions, foreign investment, and market expectations. Nevertheless, they conclude that the underutilization of Greece’s housing stock is one of the most significant factors behind today’s market conditions.
The scenario that could transform the housing market
Perhaps the study’s most striking conclusion concerns what could happen if even part of the country’s vacant housing stock returned to the market.
According to the simulations, if the number of inactive vacant homes were gradually reduced to the levels recorded in 2001 over a period of approximately six years, real house prices could fall by between 15.5% and 24.6%.
This finding leads the researchers to a clear conclusion: the largest housing reserve Greece possesses today is not found on new construction sites, but behind closed doors. And as long as millions of properties remain outside the market, the housing crisis will continue to place pressure on households and renters, despite the fact that the country has one of the largest housing stocks in Europe.
