The international macroeconomic environment favors Greek tourism

The positive impact of global economic developments on Greek tourism is highlighted in a new study by INSETE, which indicates that GDP growth and private consumption in Greece’s key tourism markets are expected to remain stable or show a slight increase in 2025. At the same time, the return of inflation in the Eurozone to 2% and the potential reduction of interest rates by the ECB create favorable prospects for inbound tourism to Greece.

Positive growth prospects in key markets

According to INSETE’s analysis, the GDP of Greece’s main source countries for tourism is expected to experience slight but positive growth in 2025. Specifically:

• The Eurozone, from which Greece received €9.1 billion in 2023, is expected to see a 1.2% increase in GDP and a 1.1% rise in private consumption in 2025.
• Germany, Greece’s largest source of tourism revenue, is expected to recover with GDP growth of 0.8%, while private consumption will increase by 0.7%.
• France, despite a decline in tourism revenue from the country in 2024, is expected to maintain GDP growth of 1%.
• Italy, which saw strong growth in tourist arrivals in 2024, is projected to record a 1.2% GDP increase, potentially sustaining the market’s momentum.
• The United Kingdom, despite a decline in tourism receipts in 2024, is expected to recover with a GDP increase of 1.2%.
• The United States, a key market for Greek tourism, is projected to record GDP growth of 2%.

Strengthening inbound tourism from the Balkans

Another particularly positive factor is the expected 3% GDP growth in neighboring Balkan countries. This development will boost road tourism, which is a significant part of Greece’s tourism ecosystem, especially for Northern Greece.

Monetary trends: Favorable exchange rates for U.S. and UK tourists

The anticipated widening of the interest rate gap between the U.S. dollar and the British pound against the euro may lead to the appreciation of these two currencies. This means that American and British tourists will have greater purchasing power in Greece, making the destination even more attractive to them.

Uncertainties and risks

Although the overall outlook is positive, certain uncertainties could impact developments:

• The political situation in France and Germany, which could create fiscal pressures and affect economic growth.
• The macroeconomic and trade policies of the United States, as potential changes in taxation, investments, or tariffs may influence the global economy and European growth.
• The war in Ukraine and other geopolitical tensions, which could affect energy prices and stability in Europe.

The macroeconomic environment for 2025 appears favorable for Greek tourism, with stable growth in key markets, a recovery in Balkan economies, and improved exchange rates for American and British visitors. While uncertainties remain, the overall outlook suggests that Greece can anticipate another strong tourism season, leveraging global economic conditions to benefit its tourism industry.