Signs of a slowdown are emerging in Europe’s short-term rental market, as growth in guest nights booked through major digital platforms slowed noticeably in the first half of 2026. However, the overall picture varies between countries, as seasonality, reliance on inbound tourism and the composition of demand significantly shape each market’s performance.
According to an exclusive analysis by Rental Scale-Up, based on Eurostat data on guest nights booked through Airbnb, Booking.com and Expedia Group, growth in the European Union reached 6.9% between January and June 2026, compared with 13.4% in the same period of 2025.
Although the market continues to expand, its growth rate has almost halved. The analysis does not establish the causes of the slowdown with certainty, but identifies pressure on household budgets, rising travel costs and restrictions affecting the available supply of accommodation in some areas as possible factors. Meanwhile, differences in the timing of Easter and Pentecost holidays between the two years affected monthly comparisons.
Greece and the importance of the summer season
For the Greek market, one of the analysis’s most significant findings is that first-half figures are not sufficient to capture the full-year trend.
According to Rental Scale-Up, January–June accounted for just 31% of annual guest nights in Greece in 2025, compared with 40% across the European Union. This figure highlights the Greek market’s greater reliance on the summer tourism season.
The contrast becomes even more pronounced in island regions. In the Ionian Islands, for example, approximately 8,000 guest nights were recorded in January 2025, compared with 2.3 million in August. This represents a difference of approximately 281 times, clearly illustrating the seasonality of this particular market.
Similarly, the South Aegean is among the regions highly dependent on the two peak summer months, with 49% of annual guest nights recorded in July and August 2025.
These figures mean that the slowdown recorded in the first half cannot automatically be interpreted as a corresponding decline in demand for the year as a whole. For markets primarily dependent on summer holidays, performance during the summer months will be decisive.
Eurostat is expected to publish figures for July–September in early January 2027, providing a fuller picture of performance in coastal and island destinations.
Seasonality reshapes Europe’s market landscape
The analysis also challenges the perception that Europe’s short-term rental market as a whole depends on summer. In 2025, just one-third of EU guest nights took place in July and August, while including June brought the share to 43%.
However, differences between destinations are substantial. The Ionian Islands, Croatia’s coastal areas and Corsica show a strong concentration of demand during the summer months. By contrast, major cities such as Madrid and Paris have a more even distribution of guest nights throughout the year.
In Madrid, for example, the ratio between the month with the most guest nights and the month with the fewest was just 1.4 to one, according to the analysis. By contrast, on Croatia’s Adriatic coast, 59% of annual guest nights took place in July and August.
Seasonality therefore affects not only the level of demand but also how a market’s results should be assessed. Weaker first-half performance may serve as a meaningful warning sign for a city or winter tourism destination, but may be insufficient to draw firm conclusions about an island that generates most of its annual turnover within a few weeks.
France takes the lead over Spain
At country level, France emerged as the largest short-term rental market in the European Union in 2025, with 213 million guest nights. Spain followed with 189 million and Italy with 139 million. Together, the three countries accounted for 57% of guest nights booked through the platforms covered.
France’s advantage is attributed, among other factors, to its range of different markets, which reach peak activity at different times of the year, as well as strong domestic demand. French residents accounted for 60% of guest nights in the country, compared with a domestic share of 38% across the EU.
Spain, on the other hand, contributed most to the slowdown in the European market. Growth in guest nights fell from 13.5% in the first half of 2025 to 3.7% in the same period of 2026. According to Rental Scale-Up, this development accounts for 31% of the overall slowdown in the EU’s growth rate.
Italy moved in the opposite direction, adding 5.5 million guest nights, compared with 2.9 million in Spain. France recorded growth of 6.9%, matching the European average.
What property managers should monitor
For Rental Scale-Up, the main conclusion is that short-term rental performance should be assessed according to the characteristics of each destination, rather than solely against the European average.
In markets heavily dependent on international visitors, domestic demand can provide support during periods of slower growth. The analysis shows that in Croatia, Austria, Portugal and Hungary, changes in international guest nights ranged from -3.6% to just 2.3% in the first half of 2026, while guest nights by residents of each country recorded considerably stronger growth.
For Greece, monitoring monthly demand, guests’ countries of origin and the concentration of guest nights during the summer season is particularly important. The slowdown in the European market is a signal that requires careful assessment, but does not, on its own, prove that the Greek market is declining.
Source: Rental Scale-Up, exclusive analysis of Eurostat data on short-term rentals booked through Airbnb, Booking.com and Expedia Group. The figures refer to guest nights, rather than the number of bookings or properties. A booking for four people staying three nights corresponds to 12 guest nights.
